🏈 NFL Betting Model

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+EV Opportunities

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Average EV

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Best EV This Week

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Projected ROI

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+EV Betting Opportunities

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Understanding +EV Betting

🎲 What is Expected Value?

Expected Value (EV) measures the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over the long run. Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is mathematically profitable.

📊 How We Calculate EV

EV = (Win Probability × Payout) - (Loss Probability × Stake). Our model compares predicted probabilities against market odds to find value.

� Kelly Criterion & Half Kelly

The Kelly Criterion calculates the optimal bet size to maximize long-term growth. Half Kelly (50% of Kelly) is recommended for most bettors as it reduces variance while maintaining strong returns, offering a safer approach to bankroll management.

�💡 Using +EV Bets

Focus on bets with higher EV percentages and reasonable confidence levels. Remember, even +EV bets can lose - it's about long-term profitability.

⚠️ Risk Management

Never bet more than 1-5% of your bankroll on a single bet. Diversify across multiple +EV opportunities to reduce variance. Consider using Half Kelly for more conservative bet sizing.